Feed Supply Intelligence | Bindaree Beef Procurement Dashboard

Processor Procurement Intelligence (Feed Availability × MLA Markets)

Synthesizing Sentinel-2 pasture depletion, 4-week forward LightGBM forecasts, physical saleyard throughput, and B-Double road freight routing for Bindaree Beef.

8 Catchments in Prime Buying Window

How the Processor Procurement Intelligence Model Works

Cibo Labs AFM Sentinel-2 39-Yr SILO Climatology MLA Saleyards LightGBM Quantile ML B-Double OSRM Routing

The Processor Procurement Opportunity Index (POI, 0–100) provides cattle buyers and commercial managers at Bindaree Beef with an actionable, forward-looking rating of supply liquidity across all 49 LGAs within 400 km. It transforms raw satellite pixel feeds and livestock market reports into concrete procurement signals: where producers face feed deficits and will be motivated to sell, what freight premium is incurred to haul cattle to Inverell, and whether pasture quality supports prime slaughter finish.

1. Turnoff Urgency 35% Weight

Quantifies pastoralist selling pressure based on current feed status: 0.40×(10−Decile_TSDM) + 0.30×(10−Decile_Rain) + 0.20×Depletion_90d + 0.10×Cover_Stress.

Procurement Driver: Low deciles (D1–D3) and sharp 90-day biomass drawdowns exhaust carrying capacity, shifting pricing leverage from vendor to processor.

2. Road Freight Cost 25% Weight

Replaces straight-line centroids with exact heavy vehicle B-Double highway network routes into Inverell abattoir gates (-29.79°S, 151.07°E).

Tariff & Shrink: Calibrated to 2.2¢/kg liveweight per 100 km (~$3.20/deck/km). Penalizes long transit fatigue and carcass weight shrink (0.5%–2.5%).

3. Forward Feed Δ (4w) 25% Weight

LightGBM Quantile ML predicts net change in pasture biomass over the next 28 days (Δ4w = TSDM_t+28 − TSDM_t).

Early Warning: Negative trajectory (depleting feed) creates a 2–4 week acquisition window before cattle lose condition; positive trajectory signals vendor retention.

4. Slaughter Finish 15% Weight

Evaluates photosynthetic vegetation fraction (Q_green = TSDM_green / TSDM_total) for optimum carcass yield.

Sweet Spot: 30%–65% green fraction delivers prime slaughter condition and high dressing %. Below 20% yields lean store stock; >70% prompts retention.

The 4 Tactical Procurement Archetypes

🟢 Prime Buying (POI ≥65): Elevated turnoff urgency within low road freight radius (e.g. Inverell 6.5 km, Warialda 65 km, Glen Innes 73 km). Secure direct-to-works contracts and bid aggressively at IRLX before liveweights slip.

🔵 Selective Sourcing (50–64): Stable forage reserves and steady commercial turnoff. Enforce strict dressing percentage and carcass weight specs; acquire opportunistically on yarding bumps.

🟠 Vendor Resistance (Decile ≥8): Plentiful standing feed (e.g. Moree, Narrabri). Graziers retain cattle for cheap weight gain; expect sparse yardings, tight supply, and firm vendor price demands.

🔴 Drought Liquidation (Decile <3): Critical forage collapse in distant catchments. Heavy saleyard yardings of store stock and cull cows. Low dressing yields and high transit shrink; discount grid base.

Catchment Feed × MLA Saleyard Lead-Lag Dynamics

Biomass depletion leads physical market yardings by 2 to 4 weeks. As pasture drops below seasonal baseline:

Step 1: TSDM Drops Sentinel-2 detects feed deficit; paddocks exhaust.

Step 2: 2–3w Delay Graziers hold, then book road transports.

Step 3: Yardings Surge Saleyard penning spikes; local basis discounts 15–30¢/kg.

Processor Value: By tracking forward biomass drawdown, Bindaree Beef anticipates yarding surges 3 weeks before they hit saleyard catwalks, enabling forward abattoir kill scheduling and basis hedging.

Procurement Opportunity Matrix (Turnoff Urgency vs Feed Trajectory)

Bubble size = Grazing Area • Hover for metrics • Scroll to zoom • Click bubble to inspect LGA

49 LGAs

Catchment Pasture Biomass vs Physical Saleyard Yardings

Comparing regional TSDM drawdowns against physical cattle volume

Catchment Procurement Rankings & Tactical Buying Guide

Ranked by Procurement Opportunity Score (POI), incorporating heavy vehicle road freight delivered cost to Inverell.

Inverell Shire Decile 1

NSW • Distance to Plant: 42 km • Total Area: 941,557 ha

TSDM Climatological Baseline & Forward Trajectory

kg DM/ha

Compares current standing biomass against historical day-of-year normal.

Pasture Quality Partitioning (Green vs Dead Feed)

Sentinel-2 5-Daily

Stacked green feed (green) and dead/litter feed (brown) with green fraction % line.

Seasonal Cumulative Pasture Growth (Jul–Jun)

Annual Accumulation

Season-to-date biomass accumulation compared with historical drought and bumper years.

Historical Drought Analogue Matching

36-Yr Record

Past seasons sharing the closest ground cover depletion and rainfall deficit profile to current conditions:

36-Year Rainfall History & Ground Cover Decomposition (1990–2026)

Demonstrating the direct biophysical rainfall effect on seasonal ground cover decomposition. Continuous monthly precipitation (AFM/SILO) linked in lockstep with 147 quarterly Landsat observations. Critical threshold: <70% cover triggers accelerated wind and sheet erosion, severe feed deficit, and emergency cattle destocking.

Synchronized 1990–2026 Timeline

Regional Monthly Rainfall History (AFM/SILO 1990–2026) • mm / month with Long-Term Median

Ground Cover Decomposition (Bare vs Green vs Dead Vegetative Cover) • Quarterly Landsat % under Tree Canopy Threshold: 70% Minimum Cover

Buying Zone Regional Rankings (49 Rural LGAs)

Sort and filter catchments by Feed Supply Index, moisture deciles, turnoff pressure, and procurement opportunity.

Regional Saleyard Throughput & National Cattle Indicators

Physical yardings from 22 catchments across NSW/QLD coupled with MLA EYCI and processor indicators.

MLA National Indicators (EYCI, Feeder Steer, Processor Cow)

Regional Physical Yardings (Prime vs Store Head Count)

Multi-Horizon Pasture Biomass Forecast (LightGBM Quantile)

Forward predictions for 4, 8, and 12 weeks with Dry (P10), Median (P50), and Wet (P90) scenarios.

Model: LightGBM Multi-Horizon • Baselines: Persistence & DOY Climatology

How to Interpret the 80% Prediction Interval & Forward Scenarios

● Median Forecast (P50): The expected pasture biomass trajectory under typical median rainfall conditions. This represents the central scenario for planning livestock turnoff.

● Wet Scenario (Upper P90): Biomass accumulation if rainfall over the horizon lands in the top 10% wettest seasons. In this scenario, producers retain stock for weight gain.

● Dry Scenario (Lower P10): Biomass drawdown under dry drought-like conditions (bottom 10% rainfall). When P10 drops sharply below 800 kg/ha, emergency turnoff surges.

Forward Biomass Trajectory & 80% Prediction Interval

Shaded envelope shows the full P10 (Dry) to P90 (Wet) uncertainty spread

Select Region:

Regional Spread [P10–P90]

Uncertainty range across closest catchments

Regional Forward Predictions Matrix (4w, 8w, 12w)

Click any LGA row to plot its forward trajectory and confidence interval above.